With only 1 game being played today I've decided to not just do a prediction (which lest be honest, I've been awful with so far) but a proper preview, taking a look at not only who I expect will win, but also at the match in general, getting behind the figures and the facts to try and help everyone know what to expect as Everton start their campaign at home to title contenders Manchester United.
David Moyes' Everton side will be looking to build on last years 7th place finish though the losses of Jack Rodwell (to Manchester City) and Tim Cahill (to Houston Dynamo) could make things very difficult for the Toffees. Whilst they have lost 2 key players they've not really made any major additions to their side aside from Belgian international Kevin Mirallas (from Olympiakos) who will be unable to play in this fixture. Whilst they did also resign the talented Steven Pienaar (from Tottenham) he did feature prominently for Everton last season, having spent much of the season loaned to Goodison outfit.
Whilst some are predicting big things for Everton I'll be honest I'm a little bit worried for them having seen them sell yet more key players, something they've had to do on an almost annual basis since the turn of the millennium. Rodwell joins the likes of Wayne Rooney, Andy Johnson, Joleon Lescott and Mikel Arteta who have all gone from the Toffees to fellow Premier League teams for in excess of £10 million as the club tries to pay off substantial debt. Though saying that they have reinvested the money from the Rodwell sale to bring in Mirallas.
Despite selling Cahill and Rodwell, Everton do still have a strong core of players with the likes of Tim Howard, Phil Jagielka, Leighton Baines, Sylvain Distin, Johnny Heitinga, Phil Neville, Leon Osman, Marouane Fellaini and the potent Nikica Jelavic as well as Pienaar who has been a hugely influential player for Everton in his previous stints at the club. Outside of Jelavic the team do lack an out and out goal scorer so they will be dependent on him through out the season.
Whilst Everton have have been a bit of a selling club this year it's fair to say Manchester United have splashed the cash as Alex Ferguson looks to regain the Premier League title that his team lost on the last day of the season last time around. The highest profile of his signings is Dutch attacker Robin Van Persie who was signed for over £20 million from Arsenal. Alongside Van Persie United have also snapped up Japanese attacker Shinji Kagawa (from Borussia Dortmund) who is seemingly a long term successor for the aging Paul Scholes.
It's hard not to view the Red Devils as a serious contender alongside fellow fierce rivals Manchester City and after the way the season finished last time around I can only imagine United having more drive to win the league this year than they had last year where they were pipped at the post. For Alex Ferguson's men last season shouldn't be viewed as a huge failure but as a massive lesson, goal difference can make a difference, the silly mistakes that see a 4-0 turn into a 4-1 or a chance missed to go 2-0 up really can be the difference between first and second. The players will know this more than pretty much anyone else in the league.
Like Everton, United have a solid core of players though unlike Everton the team aren't so dependent on a solitary attacking figure, especially not after their summer purchases. And unlike Everton United haven't really got an out and out #1 with David De Gea still likely fighting for his spot with Dane Anders Lindegaard. Though they do have a good mixture of youth and experience, the experience is really showing on some players and I'd expect the likes of Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes to be very limited in their game time this year, with Rio Ferdinand likely to also be rested almost as much as he is played.
So finally on the match at hand.
Everton, at Goodison last year were pretty solid with 10 wins from their 19 home fixtures, taking a total of 33 points from a possible 57. They were the 8th best team in the league at home, a figure that almost matched their overall league standing (7th) though where they stood out was defensively with the second best home defense in the league, conceding just 15 goals in the 19 games played at Goodison (only City's 12 goals against at home was better).
Despite a solid home defensive record Everton some how lost 6 home fixtures, this was in part due to their lack of real fire power, scoring just 28 goals in 19 games at home, a figure that was tied 8th (tied with Norwich City). They will be hoping to increase their goals at home, especially with Jelavic being at Everton from the start of the season rather than joining in the January transfer window.
Interestingly one of the best home defenses from last season goes up against one of the best away attacks of last season in Manchester United (who came second in away goals last year) who were in fact the team with the best away record, taking 42 points away from home. United will look to continue their success on the road again this year and have the squad capable of again troubling defenses across the country.
As well as having the second best away attack they had the best away defensive record conceding just 14 goals away from home. For some reason United seemed to love playing away last year, often using a lightening quick counter attack to turn the game on it's head and take advantage of teams that were chasing a game in front of their own fans.
Looking at those defensive stats it's may be fair to assume this will be a very low scoring game though with United's attack looking genuinely terrifying and with what they learned about goal difference last year I wouldn't be surprised if they made a statement, especially after City struggled to a 3-2 win over new boys Southampton. Saying that I also expect Everton to try and get their season off to a good start, something they failed to do last season where they lost their opening fixture at home to Queens Park Rangers and were surprisingly 16th after 10 games.
Despite starting this match as under dogs Everton have had some success against United in recent years including last years 4-4 thriller and an equally exciting 3-3 the year before. Impressively Everton enter this game unbeaten at home in their last 8 in the Premier League with the last 4 home games being impressive victories (with a combined aggregate of 13-1). Almost as notable is the fact that 2 of United's 3 away defeats came in 3 of their last games including a 1-0 loss to Wigan.
Looking at everything, I expect we'll have a good game on our hands, Everton's home form at the end of last year was simply tremendous with Jelavic quickly becoming a star, though I think United will just have too much for them and driven on by revenge United will likely run out winners overall and whilst I don't expect a goal fest I do expect very enjoyable match.
Kick off-20:00
Prediction 1-2
Expected Line Ups:
Everton-
Howard, Hibbert, Heitinga, Jagielka, Baines, Osman, Gibson, Fellaini, Pienaar, Naismith, Jelavic (4-4-1-1)
Manchester United-
De Gea, Rafael, Carrick, Vidic, Evra, Valencia, Cleverly, Young, Kagawa, Rooney, Wellbeck (4-3-1-2)
Notes:
Everton new signing Kevin Mirallas wasn't signed in time for this match however the re-signed Steven Pienaar will likely start.
Although Robin Van Persie, who was signed on Friday could make his debut against Everton he is expected to start on the bench, however Shinji Kagawa is expected to start.
Despite being expected to start a number of players have been viewed as doubt with Marouanne Fellaini and Darron Gibson (Everton) being considered as doubts
Rio Ferdinand (Manchester United)was doubtful and has now been ruled out, leading to United missing 4 central defenders (Ferdinand joins Phil Jones, Johnny Evans and Chris Smalling)
Players to watch out for-
Everton:
Nikaca Jelavic-The Everton danger man is expected to be the solitary forward man for Everton though is a huge goal threat and did bang in 2 goals against United last time the two teams met.
John Heitinga-The Dutch international was a rock at the back last year for Everton and was eventually crowned their player of the year, expect a solid performance here as he tries to stifle United's attacking threats.
Manchester United:
Shinji Kagawa-The attacking Japanese player will be making his Manchester United debut after playing a pivotal part in Borussia Dortmund's Bundesliga triumph last year, expect him to trouble the Everton defense repeatedly.
Wayne Rooney-The United talisman bagged 2 goals the last time out against his former club and will be looking to link up with Kagawa to bag more this time around.
Stats:
This fixture last season 0-1 (Hernandez 19)
Result last time the two teams met 4-4 (Rooney (41, 69), Welbeck (57), Nani (60) : Jelavic (33, 83), Fellaini (67), Pienaar (85))
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